Real Estate Market Analysis: Killeen, TX and Central Texas

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Real Estate Market Analysis: Killeen, TX and Central Texas

By: Malcolm Davis - Homevets Realty


This report provides a detailed analysis of the current real estate market conditions in Killeen, Texas, and the broader Central Texas region, incorporating key metrics relevant to a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) and the prevailing interest rate environment.

I. Current Mortgage Interest Rate Environment

Mortgage interest rates are a critical factor influencing buyer affordability and market activity. As of early December 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate in Texas is approximately 6.10% to 6.28% 

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Loan Type

Average Interest Rate (Approx.)

Implication for Buyers

30-Year Fixed

6.10% - 6.28%

Higher rates reduce purchasing power, leading to a focus on affordability and potentially softening demand for higher-priced homes.

15-Year Fixed

~5.66%

Attractive for buyers with larger down payments or those seeking lower lifetime interest costs.

This elevated rate environment contributes to a cooling market, shifting leverage from sellers to buyers in many areas.

II. Killeen, TX Market Snapshot (Killeen-Temple MSA)

The Killeen market is currently characterized by increasing inventory and stabilizing prices, suggesting a shift toward a Buyer's Market 8

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Metric

Killeen, TX (Most Recent Data: Oct/Nov 2025)

Year-over-Year Trend

CMA Relevance

Median Sale Price

~$225,000 - $239,900 


Down 2.1% to 7.7% 


Establishes the core value range for comparable properties.

Median Price per Sq. Ft.

$133 

Down 5.7% 

Essential for adjusting property values based on size differences.

Median Days on Market (DOM)

74 - 79 Days 

Increasing (e.g., up from 58 days in March 2025) 

Indicates market speed; a higher DOM suggests sellers may need to price more aggressively.

Months of Inventory

12.49 Months 

Significant increase (e.g., Active inventory up 20.1% as of Aug 2025) 

High inventory indicates a Buyer's Market, putting downward pressure on prices.

Median Sale-to-List Ratio

0.998 

Stable/Slightly Decreasing

A ratio near 1.0 suggests homes are selling very close to their list price, but the downward price trend indicates list prices are being adjusted lower over time.

Implications for Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)

For a CMA in the Killeen area, the following considerations are crucial:

1. Price Adjustments: Given the downward trend in median sale price and price per square foot, a CMA must be conservative. Recent sales (within the last 30-60 days) are more valuable than older data.

2. Days on Market (DOM): The high DOM (74-79 days) suggests that properties priced correctly are taking over two months to sell. A property with a lower DOM is likely priced well below market, while a property with a significantly higher DOM may be overpriced.

3. Inventory: The high months of inventory (12.49 months) confirm that sellers are competing for a limited pool of buyers. Pricing a property at or slightly below the CMA-derived value is advisable to attract attention quickly.

4. Sale-to-List Ratio: A ratio of 0.998 means that, on average, homes are selling for 99.8% of their final list price. This indicates minimal room for negotiation above the list price, and any price reductions during the listing period must be factored into the final analysis.

III. Central Texas Regional Context

The Central Texas region, often anchored by the Austin metropolitan area, presents a different market dynamic than Killeen, though both are experiencing a cooling trend compared to previous years.

•Median Price (Residential): The median price for the broader Central Texas region is significantly higher, ranging from ~$439,000 to $444,490 

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•Price Stability: Unlike Killeen's downward trend, the Central Texas median price has shown relative stability, with only minor year-over-year increases or flat growth 

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•Market Segmentation: The Central Texas market is highly segmented. While the Austin core remains expensive, surrounding areas like Killeen offer a much more affordable entry point, making Killeen an attractive option for buyers prioritizing value and space.

In summary, the Killeen market is currently a strong Buyer's Market defined by high inventory and a slight decline in prices, while the Central Texas region is experiencing price stabilization at a much higher price point. Agents in Killeen must focus on aggressive, data-driven pricing strategies to succeed in the current high-inventory, high-interest-rate environment.
Location: Texas, USA

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