Where the CTX Market Stands Right Now
Central Texas real estate is closing out 2025 in a cooler, more balanced market, with buyers finally getting more choices and sellers adjusting to a slower pace and tighter affordability. This creates both opportunity and responsibility for anyone planning to move, invest, or PCS in the CTX over the next few months.
Where the CTX Market Stands Right Now
The broader Texas housing market has shifted away from the extreme seller’s market of the pandemic years into a more balanced environment, with moderate price growth, more inventory, and eased competition in many areas. Prices across the state are still higher than pre‑2020 levels, but the speed of appreciation has slowed, and some pockets are seeing flat or slightly lower values compared with a year ago.
For many Central Texas buyers, this means:
More homes to choose from instead of scrambling over the same few listings.
A better chance of negotiating on price, repairs, and concessions.
The ability to make more thoughtful decisions instead of rushed, “write it now or lose it” offers.
For sellers, it means:
Pricing strategy and presentation matter more than ever.
Overpricing can quickly push a home into the “stale listing” category.
Well‑prepared, realistically priced homes can still sell solidly but are less likely to see bidding wars.
Prices, Inventory, and Days on Market
Across Texas, housing researchers describe a fall 2025 pattern of modest home sales, ongoing affordability challenges, and a gradual rise in active listings. Statewide, median prices show a small year‑over‑year increase overall, but the repeat‑sales index (which tracks price changes more cleanly) has been nearly flat month‑to‑month, suggesting the frantic price spikes are behind us.
In many markets, months of inventory—how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current pace—has moved closer to or slightly above six months, which is often considered a sign of a balanced or even slightly buyer‑leaning market. Homes are also taking longer to go from active to closed, giving buyers more time to view, compare, and think before offering.
For CTX buyers and sellers, this translates into:
Less urgency but more need for a clear strategy.
A market where both sides have leverage, depending on price point and condition.
A return to fundamentals: good pricing, strong condition, and realistic expectations.
Interest Rates, Affordability, and What That Means for You
Interest rates in 2025 have eased from their peak but remain higher than the ultra‑low levels of 2020–2021, keeping affordability front and center for many Texas households. Even with slightly lower rates, higher prices and insurance costs mean monthly payments can still feel tight, especially for first‑time buyers.
For buyers:
Getting pre‑approved and knowing your “comfortable” payment (not just your maximum approval) is critical.
Rate buydowns, seller concessions, and carefully choosing the loan type can make a real difference in your budget.
Shopping around for lenders and comparing estimates is no longer optional; it is part of being a smart CTX buyer.
For sellers:
Understanding how rates affect buyer budgets helps you price strategically.
Offering credits toward rate buydowns or closing costs can make your home stand out without simply slashing the price.
Working with an agent who understands current lending patterns can help you structure deals that actually close.
Opportunities and Risks for CTX Sellers
Sellers in Central Texas still benefit from strong long‑term demand driven by population growth, military presence, and ongoing in‑migration to the state. But the days of “list it high and watch the offers roll in” are over in many neighborhoods.
Key points for sellers:
Price with the market, not your memories. Overpricing in a cooling environment often leads to multiple reductions and a lower final number than starting at a realistic price.
Invest in condition: clean, decluttered, repaired homes with strong curb appeal consistently outperform tired listings, especially when buyers have more options.
Expect negotiations: many buyers will ask for help with closing costs, repairs, or rate buydowns. Plan for this rather than treating it as an insult.
If you are moving for PCS, job relocation, or family reasons, a solid pricing and timing strategy can still deliver a successful sale without sitting on the market for months.
Opportunities and Risks for CTX Buyers (Especially Military)
For buyers—military and civilian—this late‑2025 market in CTX offers real advantages:
More leverage: with rising inventory and longer days on market, you are less likely to waive protections just to be competitive.
Negotiation power: You can often secure seller credits for closing costs or repairs instead of absorbing everything yourself.
Time to think: you can actually compare multiple homes and make a deliberate choice.
However, there are still risks:
Waiting too long on the “perfect” deal can cost you if rates or prices tick up again.
Chasing cosmetic perfection and ignoring solid homes that need minor updates can limit options unnecessarily.
Not understanding your VA, FHA, or conventional options can lead you to the wrong loan structure or payment.
Military buyers in particular should weigh:
Likely time on station versus rent‑vs‑buy math.
How BAH, VA benefits, and PCS timelines intersect with this more balanced but still shifting market.
Exit strategies: renting the property out or selling cleanly when new orders arrive.
How to Move Smart in CTX Right Now
Whether you are buying or selling in Central Texas as of December 18, 2025, a few principles stand out:
Get educated on the current numbers in your specific city and price range, not just statewide headlines.
Work with professionals—agent and lender—who are active in CTX right now and understand this cooler, more balanced phase.
Focus on total monthly cost and long‑term fit, not just today’s interest rate or list price.
The CTX market at the end of 2025 is not about panic or frenzy; it is about strategy, preparation, and realistic expectations. Those who adapt to this new normal—rather than trying to replay 2021—are the ones who will make the most of the opportunities it offers.
Malcolm Davis
Real Estate Agent - Homevets Realty LLC
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